As former Nato chief warns about defence spending, how much has the military shrunk?

As Former NATO Chief Warns About Defence Spending, How Much Has the Military Shrunk?

Former NATO secretary general Lord Robertson has raised concerns over the UK’s current security posture, claiming the Strategic Defence Review (SDR) has placed national defense “in peril.” His critique highlights a reluctance to allocate sufficient resources to military readiness, despite the growing importance of global threats. BBC Verify has examined the size of the UK’s armed forces, revealing a marked decline since the end of the Cold War.

Numbers Reflect a Shrinking Force

In 1990, the British Army boasted 153,000 regular troops, a figure now reduced to 73,790. The 2025 SDR set a target to keep the regular force above 73,000, yet applications for army enlistment dipped by roughly 40% in 2025 compared to 2024. Reservists have also seen a sharp drop, falling from 76,000 in 1990 to 25,770 today.

The Royal Navy’s fleet has similarly diminished. Once comprising 48 major combat ships, including 13 destroyers and 35 frigates, it now operates 11 frigates and six destroyers. This decline has sparked criticism, particularly after the Navy delayed deploying HMS Dragon to Cyprus for weeks, raising questions about operational preparedness.

Modernization vs. Reduction

The Royal Air Force (RAF) has also experienced a transformation. While it once had over 300 combat jets, its current force includes 137 Eurofighter Typhoons and at least 37 F-35 Lightning II aircraft, which are more advanced but fewer in number. Uncrewed aircraft systems, such as drones, now play a key role in the UK’s air capabilities—a technology absent in 1990.

“We cannot defend Britain with an ever-expanding welfare budget,” Lord Robertson warned, emphasizing the need for balanced fiscal priorities.

The shift toward drones has been underscored by their impact in the Ukraine conflict, where they have become more lethal than traditional artillery. Analysts argue the UK must increase investment in this evolving technology to maintain strategic advantage.

Procurement Challenges and Spending Ambitions

Despite its defense spending targets, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) faces hurdles in project delivery. In 2024-25, 47 of the 213 Government Major Projects Portfolio (GMPP) were under the MoD’s control. The National Audit Office (NAO) reported that 12 of these projects were rated ‘Red,’ indicating their success seems unlikely. The MoD has historically struggled with meeting deadlines, costs, and performance benchmarks.

One key issue is the lengthy process for awarding contracts. For projects exceeding £20 million, the MoD typically takes six and a half years to finalize agreements. The 2025 SDR proposed a “segmented approach” to streamline procurement, aiming to complete contracts within two years.

The government asserts it is set to increase defense spending significantly, stating this will be the largest rise since the Cold War. However, critics note this goal is modest, given the long-term decline in defense budgets since the Berlin Wall fell. The current target is to reach 2.5% of GDP for NATO-qualifying defense spending by April 2027, with aspirations to hit 3% in the next parliamentary term.

While the UK’s 2025 defense spending of 2.3% of GDP places it above the NATO average, it lags behind nations like Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia, which exceeded 3.5% of GDP. The proposed 5% national security spending by 2035 includes 3.5% for core defense and an additional 1.5% for infrastructure and civil preparedness.