How depleted weapons stockpiles could affect the Iran conflict

How Depleted Weapons Stockpiles Could Affect the Iran Conflict

US President Donald Trump asserts that his country possesses nearly endless reserves of critical armaments. In contrast, Iran’s defense ministry insists its forces can withstand the enemy for longer than the US anticipated. While stockpiles alone may not determine the conflict’s resolution, they remain a crucial element in shaping its trajectory.

The conflict has seen a relentless pace from the outset. Both sides are already exhausting their weapon supplies at a faster rate than they can replenish. According to the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), the US and Israel have executed over 2,000 attacks, each requiring multiple munitions. Meanwhile, Iran has launched 571 missiles and 1,391 drones since the war began. Many of these have been intercepted, yet the high volume of attacks continues to strain resources.

Western officials note a sharp decline in the number of missiles Iran is firing. This has dropped from hundreds on the first day to just dozens in recent days. Before the war, Iran’s short-range ballistic missile stockpile was estimated to exceed 2,000 units. However, no military shares exact figures on its arsenal, as such details are kept secret to mislead opponents.

Gen Dan Caine, America’s top commander, reported a 86% reduction in Iran’s ballistic missile launches since the fighting began. Centcom also noted a 23% decrease in the past 24 hours. Despite these drops, Iran’s drone activity has declined by 73%, according to Caine. This may signal an effort to conserve supplies, though production is expected to slow further as the war drags on.

Blockquote> “After the initial attack from a distance, the US can now use less expensive missiles and bombs,” says Mark Cancian, a former US Marine colonel at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). He adds that the US might sustain this level of operations for “almost indefinitely,” but the war’s duration could eventually force a reduction in intensity.

With US and Israeli jets now dominating the skies, Iran’s air defenses have been largely eliminated. Its air force is no longer a credible threat, leaving the country reliant on ground-based systems. The next phase of the war focuses on targeting Iran’s missile and drone launchers, as well as its remaining stockpiles and production facilities. This strategy could weaken Iran’s combat capability, though destroying all weapons may prove challenging.

Iran spans an area three times that of France. Even with air dominance, weapons can still be concealed in remote locations. History shows that aerial campaigns alone cannot eliminate all military assets—Israel has not eradicated Hamas in Gaza after three years of bombing, and Houthi rebels in Yemen have endured a year of US strikes.

Despite its global power, the US military still depends heavily on costly precision-guided weapons, which are produced in limited quantities. Trump is reported to have scheduled a meeting with defense contractors to accelerate production, indicating potential strain on American resources. Meanwhile, the US has shifted from using long-range stand-off weapons like Tomahawk missiles to cheaper stand-in options such as JDAM bombs, which can be deployed closer to targets. This change may ease some pressure but does not eliminate the need for rapid replenishment.