Fertiliser crisis caused by Iran war sparks global food security fears
Fertiliser Crisis Caused by Iran War Sparks Global Food Security Fears
Fertiliser crisis caused by Iran war sparks – The ongoing conflict in the Iran war has escalated concerns over international food security, as rising production costs and disrupted supply chains threaten agricultural stability worldwide. A critical issue emerging from this situation is the tightening of fertiliser availability, which has already forced farmers to confront some of the lowest affordability levels in four years. This development is highlighted in a recent World Bank report, which identifies the surge in natural gas prices as the primary driver behind the increased costs. The report underscores how energy market fluctuations are directly impacting agricultural production, creating a ripple effect across global food systems.
Europe’s Resilience Amid the Crisis
While Europe appears to be less vulnerable to immediate fertiliser shortages compared to other regions, the situation remains precarious. European agriculture ministers have reportedly urged swift measures to avert a prolonged food price surge and protect next year’s grain harvests. The European Union’s domestic fertiliser production, which historically meets around 70% of the continent’s demand, has so far cushioned the sector from severe disruptions. However, the World Bank’s findings reveal that European farmers are navigating an increasingly complex economic landscape, where profit margins are shrinking due to higher input costs.
“Europe is not facing a supply issue for the current season, given the relatively high output of domestic production and record high import levels in Q4 2025,” stated a spokesperson for Fertilisers Europe in an interview with Euronews. “Yet, farmers are operating in a volatile environment, and the EU must provide targeted aid to ensure they can sustain operations without compromising the competitiveness of its fertiliser industry.”
The spokesperson emphasized the need for EU institutions to balance support for agricultural stakeholders with the imperative to maintain market stability. As global energy prices remain elevated, the cost of nitrogen-based fertilisers—which are largely derived from natural gas—has become a focal point for policymakers. The World Bank’s analysis suggests that even with current supply levels, the interplay between energy costs and agricultural demand could lead to a sustained crisis if intervention is delayed.
A Global Ripple Effect on Developing Economies
Meanwhile, the impact of the fertiliser shortage is intensifying in Asia and the Global South, where shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have exacerbated supply chain challenges. The Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) has reported that countries such as India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Egypt, Sudan, and parts of Sub-Saharan Africa are experiencing acute shortages, with prices soaring and availability dwindling. These regions, which heavily rely on fertiliser imports, now face the dual threat of reduced crop yields and heightened food insecurity.
“European farmers are already under significant economic and regulatory strain, and global shocks are intensifying this pressure,” said a representative from CropLife Europe. “Food security hinges on resilience, meaning farmers must have access to essential tools to safeguard their crops, even during periods of uncertainty.”
The FAO’s Food Price Index has also begun to climb in response to these pressures, indicating a broader trend of inflationary forces affecting global food markets. While the index tracks a range of food commodities, the underlying cost of agricultural inputs, such as fertilisers, is emerging as a key determinant of future price trends. Analysts warn that as transport expenses rise and logistical challenges in conflict zones worsen, the “fertiliser squeeze” will likely push food prices to levels not seen in recent years.
The Energy-Food Connection
At the core of the current crisis lies the fundamental relationship between energy markets and agricultural production. Natural gas, which is a critical component in the manufacturing of nitrogen-based fertilisers, has become a linchpin of global food supply chains. Any instability in energy prices directly translates to higher fertiliser costs, which in turn affect the affordability of food for consumers. The World Bank’s assessment underscores that this connection is not just a temporary anomaly but a structural issue that could persist for years.
“EU nitrogen fertiliser production is deeply intertwined with natural gas, so the spike in energy costs has significantly raised production expenses,” Fertilisers Europe told Euronews. “Fertilisers are essentially energy, and when energy prices climb, so do fertiliser prices.” This statement highlights the vulnerability of even well-established agricultural economies to global energy market dynamics. Despite Europe’s current resilience, the spokesperson cautioned that the situation could shift rapidly if the crisis deepens.
Long-Term Implications for Harvests and Poverty
The World Bank’s report warns that a reduction in fertiliser use today could lead to substantially lower crop yields in the coming seasons, potentially prolonging the existing poverty crisis. In Europe, the concern is specifically about next year’s harvests, with fears that higher input costs may force farmers to cut back on fertiliser application during crucial planting periods. Expert modelling from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) suggests that such a decline would result in a noticeable drop in global grain stocks, further straining food availability.
For emerging economies, the situation is even more dire. With inflation already running high, the additional burden of rising fertiliser prices could force governments to tighten monetary policies, risking broader economic instability. The FAO’s findings align with this outlook, noting that the current shortages are not only affecting production but also accelerating the transition to food insecurity in vulnerable regions. “The surge in fuel and power prices, combined with export blockades, is creating an unsustainable environment for global producers,” the organisation stated.
As the conflict in the Iran war continues to disrupt key trade routes, the fertiliser crisis is becoming a symbol of the interconnectedness of energy and food systems. The logistical challenges of transporting fertiliser across volatile regions are compounding the problem, with shipping delays and higher costs further straining the ability of farmers to access essential resources. This has prompted calls for coordinated international action to stabilise supply chains and prevent a cascading impact on global food security.
Experts stress that the crisis is not isolated to any single region but is part of a larger pattern of global supply chain disruptions. The combination of energy price volatility, reduced fertiliser availability, and increased logistical complexity is creating a perfect storm for agricultural producers. For many developing countries, this could mean not just higher food prices but also a deeperening of poverty as essential nutrients for crops become harder to secure.
With the World Bank and FAO raising alarms about the potential for long-term food insecurity, the urgency for intervention has never been greater. Europe’s current position of strength in fertiliser supply may offer temporary relief, but the broader implications for global agriculture demand a comprehensive response. Policymakers must now act to ensure that the crisis does not escalate into a full-blown food shortage, safeguarding both current and future harvests for millions of people worldwide.
