Could Republicans flip New Hampshire Senate seat? Sununu’s got a shot

New Hampshire Senate Contest Emerges as a Key Test for Both Parties

Cybersecarmor.com – Republicans see a genuine opening in New Hampshire’s closely watched U.S. Senate race, where former Sen. John E. Sununu is seeking to win a seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. His opponent, Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas, begins with advantages of his own, but early polling and heavy national spending have put the contest squarely among the country’s most competitive Senate campaigns.

The stakes extend well beyond New Hampshire. Republicans hold the Senate by a 53-47 margin, meaning every contested seat could shape the balance of power in Washington. A Republican victory would give the party more room in a cycle where Democrats are expected to make gains in other states. For Democrats, retaining Shaheen’s seat is an important part of any route to winning the chamber.

National Republicans Commit Major Resources

Republican National Committee Chairman Joe Gruters brought a direct message to New Hampshire Republicans during a Sept. 13 GOP unity breakfast: the party intends to spend what it believes is necessary to compete for the seat.

“We think these are some of our best pickup opportunities in the entire country, and so we’re willing to make the investment,” Gruters said. “That’s why I’m here. That’s why we’re rallying the troops.”

The national party’s interest reflects a race that has become more competitive than many initially expected. New Hampshire has not elected a Republican senator in nearly 10 years, and the state has not supported a Republican presidential candidate since 2000. Yet its history of close elections and independent-minded voters has long made it a place where individual candidates can matter greatly.

Outside Republican groups are also committing substantial sums. The Senate Leadership Fund announced in April that it would devote $17 million to support Sununu, describing the amount as its largest investment in the state in a decade. That backing gives Republicans the means to maintain a serious campaign even as Democrats hold a fundraising edge.

The Sununu Name Remains a Political Asset

Sununu enters the campaign with an unusually well-known family name in New Hampshire politics. His father, John H. Sununu, served three terms as governor, while his brother, Chris Sununu, won four gubernatorial terms with support that crossed party lines. John E. Sununu himself represented New Hampshire in the Senate after defeating Shaheen, then the governor, in 2002.

His first Senate tenure lasted one term. Shaheen defeated him in 2008, beginning the Senate career that is now coming to a close. The earlier matchup gives Sununu a rare degree of statewide familiarity for a candidate trying to flip a Democratic-held seat.

Political observers have pointed to that recognition as one reason the race differs from contests in other states. Senate campaigns in Maine, Georgia and North Carolina have moved in a more Democratic direction, while New Hampshire has stayed closely divided.

“Why is New Hampshire different? I think it comes down to the candidates and also the nature of the state,” said Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. “New Hampshire leans Democratic, and this ought to be a Democratic year, but the Sununu family has done extremely well in elections in New Hampshire.”

Smith said Sununu’s prior service and statewide profile contrast with Pappas’ more limited recognition outside his congressional district. That dynamic could help keep the campaign competitive even if broader national conditions favor Democrats.

Polling Shows a Narrow and Unsettled Race

Recent surveys have produced differing results, but each has reinforced the view that neither candidate has established a commanding advantage. Most polling has given Pappas a modest lead. A University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll released Aug. 26 put Sununu ahead by two percentage points, while a Sept. 2 Fabrizio, Lee & Associates survey gave him a one-point edge.

The Fabrizio poll was sponsored by Republicans, although New Hampshire Democratic operative Steve Marchand described Fabrizio as a respected pollster. A later University of New Hampshire survey, released Sept. 24, showed Pappas leading by eight points. Smith nevertheless characterized the contest as a statistical tie when undecided voters and lesser-known candidates were considered.

The Cook Political Report recently shifted its rating from “Lean D” to “Toss-up,” an assessment that reflects the uncertainty surrounding the race. With significant numbers of voters still open to persuasion, advertising, candidate appearances and turnout operations may prove decisive in the final result.

Affordability and Independence at the Center of the Message

Sununu’s campaign has sought to frame him as a senator willing to act independently, while arguing that Pappas follows his party’s positions too closely. Campaign spokesman Mike Schrimpf said Sununu is concentrating on economic concerns affecting residents across the state.

“Since the launch of this campaign, John Sununu has made clear that he is laser-focused on affordability,” Schrimpf said.

Schrimpf also said Sununu would provide an “independent voice in the Senate,” and criticized Pappas over party-line voting and the cost of living for Granite Staters. Republicans are presenting the election as a choice between a former senator with a longstanding New Hampshire political identity and a Democratic congressman they contend is less connected to the state as a whole.

Pappas, however, has entered the race with more money directly available to his campaign. Finance reports show $4.25 million in cash on hand for Pappas, compared with $3 million for Sununu. That advantage may help Democrats build their own statewide operation, respond to Republican advertising and introduce Pappas to voters outside the district he represents.

A Race With National Consequences

The New Hampshire contest will test whether a prominent state political brand can overcome the state’s recent Democratic lean and a national environment complicated by President Donald Trump’s record-low approval ratings. It will also measure whether Pappas can translate his congressional experience and financial advantage into enough statewide support to hold the seat for Democrats.

For now, both parties have reason to invest heavily. Republicans view Sununu as one of their strongest chances to expand their Senate majority, while Democrats see Shaheen’s open seat as too important to surrender. In a state accustomed to closely fought elections, the campaign is likely to remain one of the most consequential Senate battles of the year.