Early 2028 primary poll shows clear frontrunners for both parties

Early 2028 Polling Puts Harris and Vance at the Front of Their Parties

Cybersecarmor.com – With the 2026 midterm elections approaching, attention is beginning to shift toward the next presidential contest. A new survey released Sept. 24 by McLaughlin & Associates places former Vice President Kamala Harris and Vice President JD Vance in early leading positions for the 2028 Democratic and Republican nominations.

The numbers offer only an early measure of party sentiment, not a forecast of who will ultimately compete for the White House. Still, they show that both parties already have recognizable figures separating themselves from a broader group of possible contenders.

Harris leads the Democratic field

Harris received support from 29% of Democrats in the hypothetical primary question. California Gov. Gavin Newsom followed at 12%, while former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg drew 9%.

Another 15% of Democratic respondents had not settled on a candidate. That undecided share underscores how much room remains for the field to change before any formal 2028 campaigns begin.

Newsom has publicly addressed the possibility of another presidential run. During a Montana fishing trip with CNN’s Jake Tapper earlier this month, the governor said he would not seek the presidency in 2028 if Harris chose to run again. The comment came after Tapper asked how Newsom’s plans would be affected by a Harris candidacy.

The potential dynamic is significant because Harris and Newsom are among the best-known Democrats frequently mentioned in connection with 2028. If Harris enters the contest, Newsom’s statement suggests that the party’s early competition could take a different shape than polling alone might indicate.

Vance holds a larger Republican advantage

On the Republican side, Vance led the hypothetical primary field with 35% support. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was next at 15%, narrowly ahead of Donald Trump Jr., who received 14%.

Twelve percent of Republican respondents said they remained undecided. While Vance’s lead is more substantial than the margin separating the Democratic candidates, the contest for the next tier of Republican support remains close.

Other possible candidates have added to the early speculation. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz spoke openly about his presidential ambitions in August during an appearance on Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick’s podcast.

“It’s no secret that I want to be president,” Cruz said.

Rubio, by contrast, has sought to cool talk of an imminent campaign. During an official trip to Colombia earlier this month, he said his focus remains on his current responsibilities, while leaving open the possibility that his plans could change over time.

“I don’t know what the future holds, but I have no plans at this time,” Rubio said. “I’m not a candidate for anything right now. And I’m 100% focused on my job, and I have to be because I have two jobs.”

What the poll measured

McLaughlin & Associates surveyed 463 likely voters between Sept. 16 and Sept. 22. The survey joins other early polling that has placed Harris and Vance at the top of their respective potential primary fields, including a recent YouGov/Bowling Green State University survey.

At this stage, such polls primarily capture name recognition, current party preferences and reactions to the political environment. The 2028 nominating contests are still far away, and neither party has finalized a field of candidates. Many people now included in hypothetical questions may decide not to run, while other politicians could become more prominent after the midterms and the following election cycle.

The results also illustrate how the vice presidency can shape early presidential expectations. Harris previously served as vice president, while Vance currently holds the office. A future general-election matchup between the two would create a contest featuring figures closely associated with different eras of the same office, though no formal nominations have been made.

An early signal, not a settled race

For Democrats, Harris begins with a noticeable advantage over Newsom and Buttigieg, but a sizable bloc of voters has yet to choose a favorite. For Republicans, Vance has the strongest position in the survey, while Rubio and Donald Trump Jr. are separated by only one percentage point.

Candidate decisions could matter as much as polling over the next two years. Newsom’s comments about deferring to Harris, Cruz’s stated interest in the presidency and Rubio’s insistence that he is focused on his present work all point to a political landscape that remains unsettled.

Voters will have many intervening developments to consider before the 2028 primaries: the outcome of the upcoming midterms, the performance of elected officials, major policy debates and the choices made by prospective candidates. The latest numbers provide an early snapshot of that conversation, with Harris and Vance emerging as the clearest initial leaders in their parties.