Experts dispute US account of deadly Iran sports hall strike in Lamerd
Experts Challenge US Claim of Iranian Responsibility in Lamerd Strike
On the opening day of the conflict, the US alleged that Iran carried out a devastating attack on Lamerd, a town in southern Iran. However, six weapon analysts have contested this claim, scrutinizing video evidence and offering independent assessments. Their analysis focused on the missile’s visual characteristics, the manner of its detonation, its flight path, and the number of strikes observed in the region.
Iranian authorities reported that 21 individuals, including four minors, perished in the attack. BBC Verify first covered the incident on 28 March, citing experts who believed the missile used was likely a US Precision Strike Missile (PrSM). At the time, the US Central Command (Centcom) did not provide comments for the report. Later, Centcom issued a statement on 31 March, asserting that the footage aligned with an Iranian Hoveyzeh cruise missile.
“US forces do not target civilians, unlike the Iranian regime which has attacked civilian locations in neighboring countries more than 300 times,” the statement noted.
When BBC Verify revisited Centcom with the experts’ findings, the command stated it had “nothing to add” to its initial claim. The verified CCTV footage, shared by Iranian state media, showed a projectile moments before it exploded above a residential zone. This video was authenticated and geolocated by BBC Verify, highlighting the missile’s mid-air detonation.
Analysts from Janes and McKenzie Intelligence, among others, identified the weapon as a PrSM. They emphasized the missile’s appearance, blast size, and proximity to possible US launch sites. The PrSM, a new US-made missile by Lockheed Martin, is said to have distinctive features such as canard fins, which were visible in the footage.
Discrepancies in Visual Evidence
Centcom’s conclusion drew criticism from multiple experts. Amael Kotlarski, a Janes analyst, noted the Hoveyzeh missile has a turbojet engine mounted on its belly and wings near the middle. “No matter the viewing angle, these features should be discernible,” he argued, pointing out they were absent in the Lamerd footage.
Another expert from McKenzie Intelligence claimed the missile in the video lacked wings or an external engine. They highlighted the presence of “canard fins,” consistent with a PrSM, as a key indicator. “I remain convinced the weapon is a PrSM, not the Hoveyzeh,” they stated.
“The length of the missile aligns more with the PrSM than the Hoveyzeh,” remarked Trevor Ball of Bellingcat. “The Hoveyzeh’s silhouette also differs, with wings and engine visibility depending on perspective.”
On the same day, nearly 400 kilometers east, strikes targeted an Iranian school and a military base in Minab, resulting in 168 fatalities. Expert analysis suggested the attack was carried out by a US Tomahawk missile. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed an investigation is underway, reiterating that US forces “never target civilian targets.”
Despite the low-resolution video, the mid-air explosion was clearly captured. Experts noted this aligns with the PrSM’s airburst capability, which disperses fragments over a broader area. The debate continues as both sides present conflicting interpretations of the evidence.
