Bowen: Trump has called for an Iran uprising but the lessons from Iraq in 1991 loom large

Bowen: Trump has called for an Iran uprising but the lessons from Iraq in 1991 loom large

Three decades after a pivotal moment in history, I find myself reflecting on the consequences of an American president’s call to arms and the subsequent lack of support. That moment occurred in February 1991, when George H.W. Bush addressed workers at a Patriot missile factory in Massachusetts. At the time, the Gulf War’s ground campaign was just days away, and the U.S.-led coalition was heavily bombing Iraqi forces and their cities. The Patriots, a cutting-edge defense system, had been central to the conflict, yet their role would later extend to Ukraine and the current tensions with Iran.

Back then, I was in Baghdad, covering the war’s impact. Just days before Bush’s speech, a U.S. airstrike had killed over 400 civilians in Amiriyah, a suburb. The Americans and British claimed the target was a command center, but I saw the evidence: the charred remains of the shelter and the bodies of mostly women, children, and the elderly. I didn’t realize the significance of Bush’s remarks at the time, but now, 35 years later, the parallels with Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu’s current rhetoric about Iran are striking.

“There’s another way for the bloodshed to stop…and that is for the Iraqi military and the Iraqi people to take matters into their own hands and force Saddam Hussein, the dictator, to step aside,” Bush declared. The workers cheered, but the message was clear: the president was offering hope without guaranteeing action.

As the coalition prepared for the ground war, the speech was a calculated move. Unlike today’s situation, the 1991 conflict had UN Security Council approval. Yet, when the Iraqi army withdrew from Kuwait, the ceasefire allowed Saddam to retain control. The Shias in the south and Kurds in the north then sparked uprisings, believing the U.S. would back them. The coalition, however, chose not to intervene, leaving the rebels vulnerable to retaliation.

In the Kurdish north, I encountered the aftermath firsthand. Snow-covered mountains became a refuge for thousands fleeing persecution, while fathers carried the bodies of their children, victims of exposure or disease. Eventually, the international community felt compelled to act, launching a humanitarian mission. In contrast, the Shia rebels faced a brutal counteroffensive, with the Iraqi regime killing thousands who thought they had the U.S. president’s endorsement.

The fallout from that first Gulf War stretched far beyond the battlefield. A no-fly zone was established to protect civilians, and American bases were permanently stationed in Saudi Arabia. It was during this period that Osama bin Laden, enraged by foreign troops in Islamic holy sites, began forming Al Qaeda. Each Gulf War, it seems, sowed the seeds for the next.

Twenty years later, the second Gulf War saw George W. Bush remove Saddam Hussein, a move that benefited Iran. Now, the current conflict aims to reverse that progress, targeting Iran’s growing influence. The U.S. is joining Israel in a campaign to dismantle its military and nuclear capabilities. Trump’s decision to escalate the situation, as a shared effort with Israel, echoes the same pattern: inciting a revolution without a promise to protect it.