Newsletter: Trump could accept leadership change from within regime, General Petraeus says

Newsletter: Trump Could Accept Leadership Change From Within Regime, General Petraeus Says

Brussels-based correspondent Mared Gwyn begins with an update on the escalating Middle Eastern tensions, now in their fourth day. Concerns are growing regarding the US and Israel’s strategic objectives and whether local powers might be drawn into the conflict. On Tuesday, Israeli forces intensified strikes targeting Tehran and Beirut, while evacuation alerts were issued for southern Lebanon. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s defense ministry reported that two drones had struck the US Embassy in Riyadh, causing damage.

On Monday, US President Donald Trump outlined his stance on the war with Iran, emphasizing his intent to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear capabilities and its support for regional proxy forces. He suggested the conflict might span “four to five weeks” or extend “far longer.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, however, stated the war would require “some time” but would not escalate into an “endless war.” Despite this, Trump did not detail his approach to Iran’s internal structure, after initially hinting at backing efforts to destabilize the government.

Shift Toward Moderate Leadership in Iran?

Former CIA director and retired general David Petraeus, in an interview with Euronews, speculated that Trump might support a more moderate Iranian leader emerging from within the current regime. He referenced the Venezuelan model, where a regime figurehead was replaced but the core infrastructure persisted. “I think yes, and I think that it is possible, it’s conceivable,” Petraeus said.

“I think yes, and I think that it is possible, it’s conceivable.” – David Petraeus

Greece responded swiftly to the recent drone attacks on Cyprus, sending two frigates and two F-16 jets to reinforce the island’s defenses. The move came after a UK-controlled base on Greek soil was hit by a drone, and two more were intercepted. Defence Minister Nikos Dendias declared, “Greece will… contribute in every possible way to the defense of the Republic of Cyprus in order to address the threats and illegal actions taking place on its territory.”

Cyprus, not a NATO member, lacks the alliance’s collective defense protections. The EU, however, has not yet activated Article 42.7, its mutual defense clause, to secure additional support from other nations. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte told the BBC that “all of us in Europe are extremely glad with what the Americans are doing” in the region. Spain, though, has taken a different stance, opposing the use of its US bases in southern Spain for the conflict with Iran.

European markets faced further declines on Tuesday as Trump’s threat of an extended war with Iran raised uncertainty. Crude oil prices climbed for the third day in a row after Iran warned of setting ships in the Strait of Hormuz ablaze. Europe’s vulnerability to energy disruptions intensified when QatarEnergy suspended LNG production due to military strikes, sending gas prices soaring. The European Commission initially claimed “no immediate security of supply concern,” but the situation remains precarious.

French President Emmanuel Macron announced plans to expand the country’s nuclear arsenal, including deploying weapons across Europe for the first time. His address from a submarine base in north-western France underscored the urgency of safeguarding national interests. “I will never hesitate to take the decisions that are essential to protect our vital interests. If we were to use our arsenal, no state could avoid it,” he declared.