How long can Iran continue the war?

How Long Can Iran Continue the War?

Iran faces a significant challenge in its conflict with the United States and Israel, operating without major allies. The country’s leadership is depending heavily on its missile and drone capabilities, showing no signs of retreat. According to Ali Larijani, the Supreme National Security Council’s secretary-general, Iran is ready for a prolonged struggle, unlike the U.S. He emphasized,

“We will defend ourselves, whatever the cost.”

This statement reflects the Islamic Republic’s commitment to enduring the conflict.

Military Offensives and Strategic Response

Since February 28, the U.S. and Israel have launched a coordinated, large-scale attack on Iran, aiming to strike key leaders and critical infrastructure. Despite losing several high-ranking officials, the regime remains stable. In response, Tehran has targeted Israel and neighboring Persian Gulf nations, including U.S. bases, with missile and drone strikes. The United Arab Emirates reported being hit by hundreds of Iranian projectiles in recent days.

Admiral Brad Cooper, head of the U.S. Central Command, noted that by March 4, Iran had fired over 500 ballistic missiles and 2,000 drones. He criticized the attacks for targeting civilians. A weapons expert, speaking to DW, stated,

“We don’t know exactly how many ballistic missiles and drones Iran actually has.”

This uncertainty highlights the evolving nature of the conflict.

Missile Stockpile and Technological Advances

Satellite images suggest recent strikes have damaged missile bases in Kermanshah, Karaj, Khorramabad, and northern Tabriz, with collapsed tunnels indicating destruction of storage facilities. The expert added,

“We are also seeing that mobile missile launchers are being pursued with great vigor. What was very difficult five years ago is now possible thanks to technological advances.”

However, the exact number of systems eliminated remains unclear.

At the war’s start, Israel estimated Iran’s ballistic missile stockpile at around 2,500. This number has likely dropped due to both Iranian launches and U.S.-Israel strikes. The question of how many missiles were relocated and how many launchers remain active persists.

Drones and Strategic Costs

Iran’s drone production capacity is a key asset. Leaked Russian documents claim the country can manufacture approximately 5,000 drones monthly. These are launched from simple scaffolds assembled in hours, costing several thousand dollars each. In contrast, a U.S. Patriot interceptor missile costs up to $3 million.

According to a New York Times analysis using satellite data and verified footage, Iran targeted at least seven U.S. military bases in the Middle East with short-range missiles and drones over the weekend and Monday. The attacks focused on communication and radar systems, suggesting an intent to weaken U.S. coordination. However, the exact damage to these systems is still under assessment.

Resilience and Long-Term Strategy

Fawaz Gerges, a professor at the London School of Economics, told DW,

“Iran will try to prolong the war and is playing for time.”

He argued that the regime has time to plan and execute its actions, positioning itself for an extended conflict. The core objective, he explained, is resilience—surviving attacks, adapting, and continuing to fight. This strategy underscores Iran’s determination to outlast its adversaries in the ongoing struggle.