Can the US sustain its war in Iran?

Can the US sustain its war in Iran?

President Trump asserted that the United States possesses “virtually unlimited” weapon stockpiles, while his defense secretary claimed Iran has “no hope” of outlasting American forces. Yet, concerns persist about the sustainability of this aggressive campaign, especially with limited defensive missile reserves. On February 28, the US launched “Operation Epic Fury” in Iran, escalating the conflict with a wave of strikes targeting key infrastructure and military assets.

Amid the chaos, the US-Israeli coalition reportedly neutralized Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, in the initial phase of operations. Despite Trump’s confidence that the conflict could last “four to five weeks” and potentially extend much longer, analysts question whether such optimism is justified. The Trump administration has emphasized its military readiness, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stating during a visit to Central Command that “our stockpiles of defensive and offensive weapons allow us to sustain this campaign as long as needed.”

“We’ve got no shortage of munitions,” Hegseth remarked, underscoring the US’s logistical capacity.

General Dan Caine, Chair of the Joint Chiefs, echoed this sentiment: “Sufficient precision munitions are available for the task at hand, both on the offense and defense.” However, Trump’s own remarks hint at underlying vulnerabilities. On his social media platform, he noted that while “medium and upper medium grade” munitions are at their best, the highest-grade missiles and interceptors remain a challenge.

“At the highest end, we have a good supply but are not where we want to be,” Trump wrote, signaling potential constraints.

Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, highlighted the significance of these high-end weapons, stating that “there are real limitations on stockpiles there.” She pointed to the US’s reliance on advanced systems like the Patriot missile, which costs approximately $3 million per unit and is used to intercept Iran’s ballistic missiles. Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated that around 200-300 Patriot missiles have been deployed since the conflict began, raising questions about long-term availability.

Lockheed Martin, a key supplier, delivered just 620 PAC-3 interceptors in 2025, and Cancian warned that procuring more would take at least two years. “If you approached the company today and requested additional Patriots, it would take time for them to materialize,” he explained. In contrast, shorter-range weapons such as bombs and Hellfire missiles appear more plentiful, with Cancian suggesting the US could maintain operations for an extended period.

On March 6, Trump convened with defense firms, announcing plans to quadruple production of top-tier weaponry. The White House emphasized the meeting was prearranged, but Grieco questioned its novelty, calling it “a non-announcement” as many agreements had already been disclosed. Lockheed Martin’s decision to increase Patriot PAC-3 output to 2,000 per year was publicly announced, offering some reassurance but not fully resolving concerns about supply chains.

As the conflict intensifies, the cost dynamics of defense systems become critical. Grieco noted that operating a fighter jet armed with AIM-9 missiles costs $450,000 per launch, with an additional $40,000 per hour for plane operation. “The cost of operating the fighter for an hour equals the cost of a Shahed drone,” she observed, highlighting inefficiencies in the current approach. While the US has tested cheaper alternatives like interceptor drones, production levels have yet to meet demand, leaving room for debate on the true sustainability of its military efforts.