Lebanon enters talks with Israel but with no cards to play
Lebanon enters talks with Israel but with no cards to play
Lebanon, once more plunged into conflict, finds itself at a crossroads as President Joseph Aoun seeks to broker peace with Israel. Last August, during a meeting at Baabda Palace—a modernist hilltop structure overlooking Beirut—I recalled how Aoun, a former military leader, took office after a brutal war between Israel and Hezbollah, a Shia Muslim militia and political party backed by Iran. At that time, Hezbollah had suffered significant losses and was isolated domestically, yet Aoun pledged to dismantle its arsenal. His belief in a solution to the enduring dispute over Hezbollah’s weapons seemed almost utopian, as he remarked,
“I was born an optimist.”
A fragile ceasefire had been agreed in November 2024, ending the war between Israel and Hezbollah. However, the peace remained tenuous, with Israel launching near-daily strikes targeting the group. In some regions, the fighting never ceased, and from my vantage point in east Beirut, I could occasionally hear the hum of Israeli drones passing overhead. For Hezbollah’s allies, the group symbolizes resistance against Israeli encroachment, while critics accuse it of prioritizing Iranian interests, pulling Lebanon into conflicts it does not want.
Hezbollah’s Resilience and the Ceasefire Dilemma
Founded in the 1980s during Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon, Hezbollah emerged as a resistance movement. Its early years were marked by Iranian support, including funding, training, and arms, with eradicating Israeli influence among its core objectives. The Taif Agreement of 1989, which concluded Lebanon’s civil war, required all militias to disarm and introduced a power-sharing system among the nation’s diverse communities. Yet Hezbollah retained its weapons, framing itself as a defender of Lebanese sovereignty.
Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon in 2000 after an 18-year occupation, but territorial disputes persisted. UN Resolution 1701, enacted in 2006 following a war that claimed hundreds of lives, demanded Hezbollah’s disarmament. Despite this, the group continues to hold sway over regions like Dahieh, Beirut’s southern suburbs, and parts of the eastern Bekaa Valley. Naim Qassem, Hezbollah’s secretary-general, has refused to consider a complete national disarmament, leaving President Aoun in a precarious position.
Aoun, committed to the “state monopoly on arms,” insists on maintaining control over Lebanon’s military. The 2024 ceasefire agreement required Hezbollah to withdraw fighters and weapons from southern Lebanon, a region it has dominated for decades. But without the group’s consent, removing its arsenal risks renewed violence. “We can’t let the country descend into another civil war,” he cautioned during our August meeting. With Israeli strikes ongoing and Hezbollah’s refusal to negotiate, Aoun faces a daunting challenge: how to achieve peace without the backing of the most powerful faction in Lebanon.
