Can stats help you find the Grand National winner?
Can stats help you find the Grand National winner?
The Grand National at Aintree, a standout event on the British horse racing calendar, is set to captivate audiences in 2026. With 34 contenders vying for glory, predicting the victor often feels like a gamble. However, historical data might offer some clues. BBC Sport examines the patterns to anticipate the 2026 race outcome.
Grand National 2026
Saturday, 11 April, at 16:00 BST will see the 2026 Grand National take place at Aintree. Live coverage, including commentary and reaction, will be available on BBC Radio 5 Live and BBC Sounds. Real-time updates for all Saturday races will be posted on the BBC Sport website and app. Additionally, 5 Sports Extra will provide analysis of Friday’s races from 14:00 to 16:15 BST.
Historical winners have set the stage for this year’s race. I Am Maximus leads the field, while Nick Rockett, last year’s champion, returns at 33-1. The shortest-priced triumph came in 2019 with Tiger Roll, who won at 4-1 and matched Red Rum’s feat of consecutive victories from the 1970s. Mon Mome, the highest-priced winner in 2009 at 100-1, and the century-long average of 24-1 for the winner’s odds suggest that longer odds shouldn’t deter bettors.
In the last decade, the winner’s average weight ranges from 10st 3lb to 11st 9lb. This trend might narrow the field, especially considering I Am Maximus aims to break the record as the first top-weight victor since Red Rum in 1974. Nine of the past 11 winners carried between 10st 5lb and 11st 8lb, with 11st 6lb being the most successful individual weight, securing three victories.
Age trends also play a role. Since 2014, no horse aged 10 or older has claimed the title. In 2022, Noble Yeats defied expectations by becoming the first seven-year-old winner since Bogskar in 1940. This year’s field, however, might favor horses aged eight or nine, as six eight-year-olds and three nine-year-olds have triumphed in the last ten years.
“In its past 15 runnings, the only winner with prior experience was Tiger Roll when he completed the double in 2019.”
Despite this, the first ten years of the decade saw five winners with previous participation. Yet, with changes to the number of runners and fences, experience isn’t a guaranteed factor.
Trainers like Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott have historically shaped the race. Mullins, who trained the last two winners, has had six top-five finishes in the last decade. Elliott, with Tiger Roll’s back-to-back wins, also boasts four top-five placements. Together, they’ll oversee 16 of the 34 runners in 2026. Among jockeys, Paul Townend, with two places in 2024, has opted for I Am Maximus. Jack Kennedy and Mark Walsh each have four and three top-five finishes, respectively, while Danny Mullins has two.
Official rating
Horse racing handicappers assign ratings to gauge performance. Fourteen of the last 16 winners have been rated 146 or higher, with 13 of those falling between 146 and 160. This metric could provide another layer of insight into potential contenders.
