Will Ukraine help Gulf states down Iranian drones?

Will Ukraine help Gulf states down Iranian drones?

Ukraine has signaled its readiness to provide technical support to Gulf nations facing threats from Iranian drone strikes. The country claims it possesses significant knowledge in countering such attacks and is prepared to share its strategies with Middle Eastern allies. However, the ability to dispatch personnel remains limited due to ongoing hostilities in Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy highlighted Kyiv’s expertise in drone defense, noting its experience in repelling Iranian Shahed drones, which frequently target critical infrastructure and military installations.

During a recent Telegram post, Zelenskyy outlined Kyiv’s potential role in the region, suggesting that the country could send trained operators to the Gulf if a pause in Russian aggression is secured. He emphasized that a month-long ceasefire with Russia would be a prerequisite, stating to Bloomberg, “Leaders of the Middle East have strong ties with Russians, so they can ask Russia to implement a ceasefire.” This condition, he added, would allow Ukraine to extend its drone defense capabilities to Israel and other Gulf states.

“We can help Israel in the same way,” Zelenskyy said.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha echoed this sentiment in an interview with Reuters. He noted that Ukraine’s military could neutralize 90% of Iranian drones using domestically developed intercept systems. Sybiha clarified that while full deployment might not be feasible, partial support is possible if Russia’s attacks on Ukraine are guaranteed to halt.

According to Oleksandr Chara of the Center for Defense Strategies (CDS), the Gulf states have underestimated the strategic link between Russia and Iran. He explained that the Iranian drone campaigns, incorporating Russian technology, have shifted regional perspectives. Kyiv’s experience in countering hundreds of nightly drone strikes positions it as a valuable partner, offering both operational expertise and trained personnel.

“Arab states have long overlooked the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and failed to acknowledge Russia’s role in advancing Iranian drone capabilities,” Chara said.

Chara proposed three cooperative models for Ukraine’s engagement with the Gulf. The first involves deploying seasoned forces to defend key sites immediately. The second focuses on training local pilots, strengthening military ties. The third scenario envisions Gulf financial backing for Ukrainian drone production, enabling mass manufacturing for both sides. Zelenskyy mentioned Kyiv’s consideration of transferring some interceptor drone production to Gulf partners, in exchange for access to American PAC-3 missiles for the Patriot system.

On March 5, the Financial Times reported that the Pentagon and at least one Gulf nation were discussing the acquisition of Ukrainian-made intercept drones. A source from the Ukrainian defense industry noted the talks, underscoring the Gulf’s financial capacity to invest in advanced systems. Oleh Katkov, a military analyst and editor of Defense Express, argued that the Gulf’s lack of real-time data and tested algorithms makes Ukraine’s experience invaluable. “The value lies solely in our ability to build a robust air defense system based on real-world insights,” Katkov told DW. “No other country has the detailed data on deployed units, ammunition usage, or equipment effectiveness that Ukraine provides.”

Zelenskyy’s vision extends beyond technical assistance. He aims to leverage Ukraine’s military experience to push Gulf nations toward reducing support for Russia and intensifying pressure to end the war in Ukraine. This strategy, Chara described, represents a “classic win-win situation” for both regions, offering mutual benefits while challenging existing alliances.